Will there be a lockdown in January 2022 as Omicron circumstances rise?

The emergence of the Omicron variant is inflicting concern all over the world, not least as a result of it’s regarded as extremely transmissible and since the 32 mutations of its spike protein recommend it’d have the ability to withstand present vaccines.

The UK has recorded greater than 177,000 confirmed circumstances of the pressure to this point and at the least 49 deaths, prompting recent fears that extra extreme social restrictions may quickly be imposed on the British public.

Though many scientists imagine the brand new variant is milder than earlier mutations, it stays unclear how most of the report variety of folks contaminated will find yourself in hospital, severely in poor health or dying.

Previous to Christmas, prime minister Boris Johnson mentioned that no additional restrictions could be launched forward of the vacation, explaining that “that folks may go forward with their plans”, a call that allowed him to keep away from a repeat of his infamous tackle of 19 December 2020, when he reluctantly imposed powerful new measures on the final minute and dashed the festive hopes of thousands and thousands.

He spoke on the identical day that chancellor Rishi Sunak introduced £1bn in assist for the hospitality business after prospects cancelled reservations en masse in response to the newest twist within the pandemic.

Since then, the federal government has dominated out the opportunity of imposing additional Covid restrictions in England earlier than the brand new yr. On Monday 27 December, well being secretary Sajid Javid confirmed that the prime minister had determined not to herald any new measures this week, however mentioned that ministers would proceed to watch the info fastidiously to find out whether or not extra controls could be wanted in January. He added that Omicron was now chargeable for 90 per cent of recent circumstances throughout the UK.

In the meantime, in Scotland Nicola Sturgeon introduced recent restrictions on sporting occasions and enormous gatherings and cancelled Edinburgh’s annual Hogmanay road occasion, having already requested Scots to maintain family mixing to a minimal over the vacations. Wales and Northern Eire have additionally imposed new curbs, closing nightclubs and limiting hospitality to the rule of six and returning to desk service solely.

‘Rule nothing out’

In his video message from Downing Avenue on 21 December, Mr Johnson mentioned: “We will’t rule out any additional measures after Christmas – and we’re going to maintain a relentless eye on the info, and we’ll do no matter it takes to guard public well being.”

The announcement got here a day after he advised reporters that the federal government was nonetheless deciding whether or not or to not impose additional extra measures.

He mentioned ministers have been monitoring the info “hour by hour” and that the arguments for taking additional motion have been “very, very finely balanced”.

“Sadly I have to say to those who we should reserve the opportunity of taking additional motion to guard the general public, to guard public well being, to guard our NHS,” he added.

“We’re every kind of issues to maintain Omicron beneath management and we are going to rule nothing out.”

The prime minister is known to have been ready for extra information on the variant to grow to be accessible earlier than he decided, a stance that noticed him accused of “dithering” by scientists and his political opponents.

Against this, London mayor Sadiq Khan was decisive when he declared a serious incident over the extent of the outbreak within the capital on 18 December, whereas NHS England introduced a return to its highest degree of emergency preparedness, degree 4 nationwide incident, which means that the well being service’s response will probably be coordinated as a nationwide effort, relatively than led by particular person trusts.

Total, the UK added one other 129,471 infections in 24 hours on Tuesday, a report excessive for this pandemic. That compares to about 27,000 circumstances this time final yr.

Chief scientific officer Sir Patrick Vallance is claimed to have led the decision for recent measures to drive down an infection charges and ease the strain on the NHS, however these have to this point been resisted by senior Cupboard ministers detest to additional jeopardise the financial system and constrain particular person freedom with out extra information to justify it.

Sir Patrick’s fellow advisers have been equally outspoken, with Professor Stephen Reicher, a member of the federal government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), warning that Omicron is “coming at us like an specific prepare” and insisting that the federal government should give the general public a “good, clear message” about how “severe the disaster is”.

Plan C?

The prospect of introducing a two-week circuit-breaker lockdown after Christmas has been mooted – and seems to be broadly well-liked with the general public – with plans made accessible to ministers for consideration and apparently together with a ban on assembly others indoors aside from work functions and limiting pubs and eating places to out of doors service solely.

It’s clear the PM hopes the take up of booster vaccines, together with the partial “Plan B” restrictions lately launched, will probably be sufficient to see off the menace.

As a part of these measures, Britons are presently once more being ordered to put on face masks in outlets, cinemas, theatres and locations of worship and on public transport, to make money working from home order the place attainable.

The federal government has additional revised its strategy to vaccine booster jabs, planning to make them accessible to all over-18s by the tip of December and halving the period of time between second and third injections from six months to a few, all within the hope of staving off the dreaded “tidal wave” of infections we’re already starting to see. In line with authorities information, almost 32,700,000 folks have acquired a booster jab up to now.

Some type of “Plan C” – a circuit-breaker, or tighter restrictions – might be obligatory if Omicron begins to disrupt the NHS over the festive season, however there may be little political urge for food for any type of fourth nationwide lockdown.

However Sage advisers stay unambiguous in calling for stricter curbs, with the influential Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial School London brazenly entertaining the likelihood for a number of weeks.

The larger image

Even earlier than Omicron started to solid its sinister shadow throughout the globe, many Britons have been already glancing anxiously in the direction of the continent as Austria and the Netherlands reintroduced lockdowns in response to spiking circumstances of Covid-19.

The World Well being Organisation (WHO) had mentioned it was “very frightened” concerning the unfold in Europe and warned 700,000 extra deaths might be recorded by March except pressing motion is taken, bringing the whole to 2.2 million because the pandemic started.

Previous to the newest worrying developments sparked by omicon, Mr Johnson’s authorities had been deeply reluctant to reimpose restrictions in any respect, regardless of constantly excessive case numbers.

Whereas the vaccines have constantly saved loss of life charges low because the spring, an infection ranges have remained constantly excessive, usually hovering across the 40,000-per-day mark however in latest days have been greater than double that.

Mr Johnson may be involved that additional restrictions would possibly result in social dysfunction, having seen anti-lockdown protests – a few of them violent – erupt in Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Denmark, Italy and Croatia.

Londoners have been definitely sad concerning the preliminary return of the masks mandate, accusing the PM of hypocrisy for declining to put on one himself at a number of public engagements.

Nevertheless, in different quarters, there seemed to be a transparent urge for food for brand spanking new restrictions even earlier than Omicron, at the least in line with the polls.

A latest survey of 900 managers and 1,200 workers carried out by Hack Future Lab discovered 53 per cent would welcome a “festive lockdown” for the sake of their very own well-being after struggling to come back to phrases with the return to peculiar working situations, typically discovering themselves compelled to tackle additional duties to cowl for absent colleagues.

One other ballot by Savanta ComRes revealed 45 per cent of adults could be in favour of a selective lockdown focusing on solely those that had declined to get their Covid jabs and due to this fact may pose an ongoing threat to others.

However, till Omicron threw a recent spanner into the works, there was a reputable case for believing that the UK was in such a robust place that it may keep away from the worst of the outbreak marauding throughout Europe.

Though Britain’s an infection fee has remained excessive for months, it has additionally been extremely secure till lately, lingering at a seven-day common of round 600 each day circumstances per million folks, whereas Austria and the Netherlands have immediately spiked to 1,500 and 1,250 respectively from effectively beneath that start line because the starting of October.

A part of the explanation for that is that the UK was hit by the extra infectious Alpha and Delta variants of the coronavirus sooner and was due to this fact capable of deal with them forward of its European neighbours and unlock earlier.